ABPW10 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/261500Z-270600ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.2N 145.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
167 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED BUT DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SYSTEM WITH 
FORMATIVE AND FRAGMENTED BANDING FROM THE NORTH FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE LLC IS ELONGATED AND WEAK AS EVIDENCED 
ON A 261121Z ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST CAUSED BY A A WESTWARD 
TRANSITING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. THE SAME TUTT 
CELL IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSETTING THE SUBSIDENCE. 
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15KTS), AND SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM AT 30C. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE TUTT CELL RECEDING 
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: INVEST 93W UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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