WTPN21 PHNC 250630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 96.4W TO 12.3N 104.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 96.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.3N
96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION 
FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)  WITH WRAPPING RAIN BANDS 
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. A 250314Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 15 TO 
20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW, 5-10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29 -30 C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260630Z.
//
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