ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.6N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM 
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
AN AMSR2 240551Z IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC), LOOSELY ORGANIZED WRAPPING RAIN BANDS MOVING NORTH 
AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND 
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH-EAST AND WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH EAST. HOWEVER ONLY GFS AND 
CMC SHOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TAU 48, AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE. 
A DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN VWS MAY LIMIT 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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