ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.1N 68.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 144 
NM NORTHWEST OF JAFRABAD, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT BROAD CONVECTION, SHEARED TO THE WEST 
OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRADDLING THE 
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE KATHIAWAR PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MAKES 
LANDFALL AND TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF INDIA BEFORE 
REEMERGING OVER WATER.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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