ABIO10 PGTW 160130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/160130Z-161800ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.3N 68.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 157 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JAFRABAD, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE 
BANDING TO THE WEST OF AN EXPOSED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEJ, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
INVEST 96A IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) 
VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL TRACK 
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF INDIA, WHERE GFS SHOWS A 
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 989 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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