ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.3N 68.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 
NM WEST OF JAFRABAD, INDIA. EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY-
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON 
SURGE WITH FLARING LINEAR CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28-29 C. ECMWF AND CMC MODELS DISSIPATE 96A OVER 
LAND TO N-NE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WHERE GFS TRACKS 96A NW WITH 
LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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