WTPN21 PHNC 150700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140700Z JUL 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 140700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 99.6W TO 14.2N 104.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 99.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUS LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 96.6W IS NOW LOCATED 11.3N 99.8W APPROXIMATELY 333 NM SOUTH OF 
ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING AND FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 
KNOTS) WITH EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND 29-30 DEGREES CENTIGRADE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160700Z.
//
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