WTPN21 PHNC 140700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 96.5W TO 13.0N 101.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 96.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5N 
96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH 
EAST AND AHEAD OF THE LLC TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 
KNOTS) WITH EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND 29-30 DEGREES CENTIGRADE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150700Z.
//
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