WTPN21 PHNC 091530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 110.6W TO 13.1N 119.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. GOES-17
IMAGERY AT 091430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 111.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N
111.0W, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CENTRALIZED 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 
(15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
101530Z.
//
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