WTPN22 PHNC 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300230ZJUN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 116.1W TO 15.9N 124.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 117.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
14.4N 117.0W, APPROXIMATELY 642 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, 
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010046Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL RAIN 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 94E IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94E WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OF OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020230Z.
//
NNNN