ABPW10 PGTW 300600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZJUN2022-010600ZJUL2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJUN2022// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300552ZJUN2022// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 30JUN22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHABA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ILL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF 98W HAS AIDED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDING AN INCREASE TO THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING TD STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS KADENA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR THAT 98W WILL FURTHER DEVELOP ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 300552) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN