WTPN22 PHNC 300230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290300Z JUN 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 290230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 103.1W TO 15.5N 113.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 103.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.2N 103.3W, APPROXIMATELY 741 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, 
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 300000Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL RAIN 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
010230Z.
//
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