WTPN22 PHNC 290230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 12.1N 103.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.3W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.1N 103.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1434 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 290052Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
300230Z.//
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