ABPW10 PGTW 281330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281330Z-290600ZJUN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.7N 117.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED POSITION, 
OBSCURING IT FROM CLEAR VIEW AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, 
CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE 
OR SCATTEROMETER DATA MAKES EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT, BUT A 
TIMELY 281200Z SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTED 20KT WINDS AND 1000 MB 
PRESSURE JUST 45NM NORTHWEST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. THE 
SAME SHIP, TRAVELING SOUTH TO NORTH, REPORTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT 
280900Z AS IT PASSED WITHIN 35NM OF THE CENTER, LENDING GOOD 
CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; 
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT AIMLESSLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, 
BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST IT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WHILE 
GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 97W WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, THE LARGE SCALE OF THE 
SYSTEM, THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTIVE SUGGEST A SLOW PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, 
LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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