ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
271800Z-281800ZJUN2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 20.4N 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 455 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT AN UNSEASONAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL 
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GUJARAT PENINSULA. 
94A HAS WEAKENED AFTER TRACKING UNDER THE IMMENSE (25 TO 40 KNOT) 
VWS INDUCED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) INTO AN AREA OF WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SSTS REMAIN WARM, PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND WHILE THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AT PRESENT, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING VWS, AND IS FORECAST TO 
STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR, AND ALL SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 
LIKELY ALREADY PEAKED AND MAY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR A 
SHORT PERIOD BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES  TOWARDS OMAN. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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