ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJUN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR15.5N 
122.1E, APPROXIMATELY 83 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD EASTERLY WAVE 
WITH WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHING LUZON. A 270154Z 
ASCAT METOP-B  PARTIAL PASS SHOWS STRAIGHT LINE 10-15KNOT WINDS WITH FEW 
EMBEDDED 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 97W. THE SYSTEM IS 
ANALYZED AS AN OPEN WAVE AT THE SUFACE, THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE 
SHOW HINDRANCE FROM SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LUZON AS 
IF IT WAS A SPEED BUMP AND EMERGERGE ON THE WESTERN SIDE IN THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA WITH GAINED VORTICITY AND LESS SHEAR, THUS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS DESPITE MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A ZESTY 30-31C, 
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESPECTABLE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS CONCUR, AND ALL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES 
OVER LUZON AND ENTERS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1012 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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