ABIO10 PGTW 270630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/270630Z-271800ZJUN2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.4N 
67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT AN UNSEASONAL NORTH 
ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 
GUJARAT PENINSULA. MSI INDICATES A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER 
EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 260323Z SHOWS A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED LLCC 
SOUTHWEST OF THE GUJARAT PENINSULA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO 
THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST SECTOR. HIGHER WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE 
PRESENT FURTHER WEST IN THE GRADIENT FLOW BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER. 94A HAS BLOSSOMED AFTER TRACKING AWAY FROM UNDER THE 
IMMENSE (25 TO 40 KNOT) VWS INDUCED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) 
INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND THIS TRANSFORMATION HAS THE 
SYSTEM IN A BUBBLE OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS WITH NICE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM, PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE AT 
PRESENT, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING 
VWS, AND IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR, AND ALL SUPPORT THE FACT THAT 
THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY ALREADY PEAKED AND MAY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT 
INTENSITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES  
TOWARDS OMAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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