WTPN21 PHNC 160000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (INVEST 93E)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150721ZJUN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 075 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N 91.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 91.4W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9N 89.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 91.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1900 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 152203Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTH. A 151615Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS EASTERLY FLOW AND 20 TO 25 
KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED 
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) 
VWS, RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE INVEST WILL TRACKING GENERALLY 
NORTHWEST, OR MEANDERING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170000Z.//
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