WTPN21 PHNC 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 075 NM RADIUS OF 12.0N 89.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 89.8W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.9N 89.8W, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH OF ACAJUTLA MEXICO. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A 150341Z ASCAT 
PASS SHOWS GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DISTURBANCE 
IS LOCATED IN A AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, EQUATORIAL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE SPLIT IN TRACKING SOUTH AND THEN EITHER WEST OR EAST OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160730Z.//
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