WTPN21 PHNC 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122351ZJUN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 102.2W TO 14.9N 105.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 132030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 102.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: 
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 
100.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 102.7W, APPROXIMATELY 285NM 
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131341Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED 
CONVECTION. A 131607Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED, BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL 
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
142100Z.//
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