WTPN21 PHNC 130000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 100.4W TO 16.1N 100.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 100.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 100.5W 
APPROXIMATELY 1503 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND AN 130105Z 91GHZ SSMIS 
IMAGE REVEALS INCREASINGLY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA IS IN A 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MARGINAL (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 92E WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140000Z.
//
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