WTPN21 PHNC 271700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) ***REISSUED***//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261651Z MAY 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 261700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 94.4W TO 13.5N 99.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 96.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.0N 96.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1640NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. A 271227Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
MULTIPLE FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET 
TO THE NORTH WITH IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, NEUTRAL VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C). 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
281700Z.//
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