ABIO10 PGTW 200030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/REISSUED/OCEAN/200030Z-210100ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
15.2N 96.4E, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 96.6E, APPROXIMATELY 63 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN AND 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. ALTHOUGH CLOSE TO LAND, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. 
INVEST 93B IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF MARTABAN, 
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOON 
SOUTHWESTERLIES. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THIS GENERAL MOTION, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN 
MYANMAR. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT INVEST 93B WILL INTENSIFY PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27-32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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