WTIO21 PGTW 200030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 96.2E TO 18.4N 99.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 96.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
15.2N 96.4E, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 96.6E, APPROXIMATELY 63 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN AND 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. ALTHOUGH CLOSE TO LAND, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. 
INVEST 93B IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF MARTABAN, 
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOON 
SOUTHWESTERLIES. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THIS GENERAL MOTION, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN 
MYANMAR. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT INVEST 93B WILL INTENSIFY PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27-32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210030Z.
//
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