ABPW10 PGTW 180700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180700Z-190600ZMAY2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180621ZMAY2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7S 171.E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 169.7E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) THAT HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST (CDO) AND 
DRIFTED MORE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM ITS ORIGINAL SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK. THE CDO HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED, INCLUDING 
ITS MAIN FORMATIVE RAIN BAND TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE 
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLC BUT STARTING FROM 60NM TO THE SOUTH AND 
POLEWARD AND OVER THE CDO, VWS BECOMES HIGH (25KTS+). THE INCREASING 
VWS HAS NOW OFFSET THE VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, HOWEVER, UNDER 
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW 
OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGE IN 
TRACK, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A 
(WTPS21 PGTW 180630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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