ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZMAY2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZMAY2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.7S 171.E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 170.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
THAT HAS DECOUPLLED FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST (CDO) AND DRIFTED 
MORE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM ITS ORIGINAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE 
CDO HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED, INCLUDING ITS MAIN 
FORMATIVE RAIN BAND TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT 
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, 
JUST 60NM TO THE SOUTHWEST, VWS BECOMES HIGH (25KTS+). GLOBAL 
DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS IF THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 170800) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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