WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING NR 018    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 81.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 81.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 16.1N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 16.4N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 81.0E.
11MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A VERY WEAK AND DISSIPATING 
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. TC 02B MOVED OVERLAND
BETWEEN 0900Z AND 1200Z AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN WEAKENING. THE 
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY OVER EASTERN INDIA ARE SET WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE OBSERVATIONS AT MACHILIPATNAM ARE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS, AND BAPATLA ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 
9 KNOTS, WITH A DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CITIES ONLY SPANNING 66 
NM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW REMAINING PROMINENT ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE STRONG 30+ KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION, AND THE LACK OF A 
MOISTURE SOURCE ARE PROVING TOO MUCH FOR THE SYSTEM. TC 02B IS 
NOW UNDERGOING THE DISSIPATION PROCESS AND WILL MOST LIKELY 
FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, IF NOT SOONER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE REFORMATION AND LOSES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
RAJAHMUNDRY AND VIJAYAWADA REGION. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
ARE PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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