ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN /061800Z-071800ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7N 92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM 
SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061016Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS DEEP AND 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE NASCENT CORE OF THE 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD AND WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, CONSOLIDATE, AND INTENSIFY OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.1S 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 87.9E, APPROXIMATELY 636 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061114Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP 
CONVECTION AT THE CORE OF A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLC, BUT IS CONSTRAINED TO A FAIRLY SMALL REGION ABOUT THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). NOTE THAT CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA LACKS AMV 
DATA AT THIS TIME AND HAND ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS 
SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTUAL VWS VALUES ARE LOWER THAN THE CIMSS 
ANALYSIS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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