WTIO21 PGTW 061330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 92.8E TO 12.4N 89.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 92.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7N 92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM 
SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061016Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS DEEP AND 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE NASCENT CORE OF THE 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD AND WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, CONSOLIDATE, AND INTENSIFY OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071330Z.//
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