ABIO10 PGTW 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN REISSUED//060130Z-061800ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.9N 93.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM 
SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 052229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT BROAD 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 
GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.2S 86.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 633 NM 
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FLARING 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WRAPPING INTO 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 
INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND LOW (5-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE 
INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARAGRAPHS 1.B.(1) 
AND 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
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