ABIO10 PGTW 051800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN//051800Z-061800ZMAY2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 93.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF PT. BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051322Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT BROAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 698 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051312Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL POORLY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED AND VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN