ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S 
89.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1027 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. AN AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5S 90.1E APPROXIMATELY 
525 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041417Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE 
WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED AND VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK 
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTARDLY AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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