WTXS21 PGTW 281730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051Z APR 22//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 
262100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 15.1S 111.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 111.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 107.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
457 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 20-25KTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291730Z.
//
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