WTXS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262100Z APR 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 262100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 106.9E TO 15.1S 111.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 107.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 105.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271451Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT 
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES WINDS OF UP 
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) 20-25KTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S 
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
282100Z.
//
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