ABIO10 PGTW 271800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN CORRECTED/271800Z-281800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270451ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27APR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 23.8S 47.9E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER 
THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 270600) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 105.5E, APPROXIMATELY 86 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271451Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT 
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES WINDS OF UP 
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) 20-25KTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S 
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
262100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: MADAGASCAR TRUNCATED IN PARA 2.A.
(1).//
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