WTXS21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260621ZAPR22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260630)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 14.2S 101.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 261756Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 104.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP 
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE RECENTLY DECOUPLED 
FROM THE LLC WITH ELONGATION OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS MOVED POSITIONS AS A MORE 
DOMINANT CIRCULATION HAS EMERGED 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
POSITION FROM THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FOR THIS 
SYSTEM. THERE ARE ALSO WINDS OF UP TO 35 KTS IN THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 20-25KTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND MOVE 
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS PGTW 260630).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272100Z.
//
NNNN