ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261051ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260621ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26APR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 23.3S 43.3E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261200) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 100.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
296 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE RECENTLY 
DECOUPLED FROM THE LLC WITH ELONGATION OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 20-25KTS. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TO 
WARNING CRITERIA AND MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
260630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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