ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/251800Z-261800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251200ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250621ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF 
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25APR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 21.1S 40.8E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 FMEE 251200) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 101.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
310.96 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  SCATTEROMETRY DATA 
INDICATES WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S 
WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN HAVING A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK 
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 
PGTW 250630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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