ABIO10 PGTW 250630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/250630Z-251800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250621ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF 
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24APR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 39.5E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.6S 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 101.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
268 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA 
INDICATES WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S 
WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN HAVING A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK THERE 
AFTER.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
250630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR INVEST 98S.//
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