WTXS21 PGTW 250630 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242021Z APR 22// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 14.2S 101.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 101.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 101.0E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN HAVING A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK THERE AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260630Z. // NNNN