ABIO10 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/242100Z-251800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242021ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24APR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 39.5E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.1S 100.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 141 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 241215Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL FORMATIVE 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND 
SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE 
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 2448 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
242030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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