WTXS21 PGTW 242000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 075 NM RADIUS OF 12.9S 99.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 99.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 100.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241215Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252000Z. // NNNN