ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24APR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JASMINE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 39.4E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTH OF EUROPA 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.1S 100.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 141 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCO ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241215Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL 
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND 
SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE 
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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