WTXS21 PGTW 231730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951Z APR 22// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 222000)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 40.1E TO 18.7S 38.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 40.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 41.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231552Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 97S IS POSITIONED NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT PROVIDES INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD, REEMERGE OVER WATER AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241730Z. // NNNN