ABIO10 PGTW 231800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZAPR2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231721ZAPR2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 42.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231552Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 97S IS POSITIONED NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT PROVIDES INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD, REEMERGE OVER WATER AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 231730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 100.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231520Z BULLSEYE ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDS OF 20KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY INCREASED (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN