ABIO10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/230600Z-231800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.1S 42.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 68 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230316Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS 
DEPICT CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC).  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (25-30KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 222000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.1S 100.6E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. 
ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP 
CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230248Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT 
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; 
NEAR RADIAL ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 
THE SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S 
WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.B.(2). AS A LOW.//
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