WTXS21 PGTW 222000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S 42.6E TO 16.5S 40.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.8S 42.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 96 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 221606Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 221817Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICTS SWATHS OF 
30KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 97S IS POSITIONED NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT 
PROVIDES INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS 
SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH POTENTIAL LANDFALL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A 
LIMITING FACTOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
232000Z.
//
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