ABIO10 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/130200-131800ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130121ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 31.4S 31.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.0S 30.5E, APPROXIMATELY 145 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EAST LONDON, SOUTH AFRICA. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM 
WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 122245Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING 
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 120737Z ASCAT-C 
IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KT WINDS AND A 
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30NM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD UPPER LOW BUT HAS MAINTAINED 
VIGOROUS ANTICYCLONIC, POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 
24 TO 26C. THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED UNDER A 500MB LOW WITH 
MODERATE BAROCLINICITY BUT HAS MAINTAINED A WARM CORE. THE SYSTEM 
HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION, WHICH HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT MAY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IF 
IT CAN SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN AN EASTWARD 
TRACK WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 130130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.      
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.C.(1) TO HIGH.
NNNN