ABIO10 PGTW 121430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/121430Z-121800ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
31.0S 31.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF EAST LONDON, SOUTH 
AFRICA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, 
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE 
CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED PRIMARILY OVER 
LAND WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC FEATURES BUT HAS SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE 
OVER WARM WATERS. THE LLCC REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A 500MB 
LOW HEIGHT CENTER WITH WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION AND A MID-LEVEL WARM 
CORE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-15KTS)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY COOLER (24-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 
HOURS WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 
45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989MB. 
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN 
DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED SUBTROPICAL AREA IN 2.C.(1) 
TO LOW.//
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