ABPW10 PGTW 090230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090230Z-090600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09APR22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 7.0N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 19 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IFALIK, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.8N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
220 NM SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 082149Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS REVEALS 
RAGGED BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. A 
082300Z OBSERVATION FROM GUIUAN REVEALS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 
19KT. A 082300Z SHIP OBSERVATION NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUIUAN FROM AN 
UNKNOWN ELEVATION REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS AT 26KT. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS 20-25KT WINDS AROUND THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, CONSISTING OF ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM 
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THE POSITION OF 94W BUT DIFFER ON INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK. GFS 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES 94W TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 18-24 
HOURS AND KEEPS IT RATHER SMALL AND TIGHTLY WOUND BEFORE BEING 
SLINGSHOT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 02W. HOWEVER, 
ECMWF SHOWS MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION 
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 23P) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 25.9S 167.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7S 168.5E, 
APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM 
IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED IS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 081647Z 
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT IS EXPOSED 
AND ENVELOPED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
OFFSET DISTANTLY TO THE SOUTH BY SOUTH-EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (20 TO 25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) WITH 23P SLOWLY EMBEDDING ITSELF IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES 
AND COOL (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH 23P EMBEDDING 
ITSELF IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 23P WILL 
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
KICK STARTING CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN 66-84 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN